Past and future burden of inflammatory bowel diseases based on modeling of population-based data

Background and Aims — Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on healthcare systems. We aimed to determine the past, current, and future prevalence of IBD in Canada.

Methods — We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from: Alberta (2002-2015), British Columbia (1997-2014), Manitoba (1990-2013), Nova Scotia (1996-2009), Ontario (1999-2014), Quebec (2001-2008), and Saskatchewan (1998-2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PI), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% CIs, was assessed with log binomial regression.

Results — In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada is estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI, 716–735) and annual average percent change is estimated at 2.86% (95% CI, 2.80%–2.92%). Forecasted prevalence in 2030 is forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI, 963–999) with a forecasted prevalence of 159 per 100,000 (95% PI, 133–185) in children; 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI, 1069–1168) in adults; and, 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI, 1312–1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 (95% PI, 264,579–271,387) Canadians are estimated to be living with IBD, which is forecasted to grow to 402,853 (95% PI, 395,466–410,240) by 2030.

Conclusion — Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high quality and cost-effective care.