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Projecting the growth of cataract surgery during the next 25 years

Hatch WV, Campbell EL, Bell CM, El-Defrawy SR, Campbell RJ. Arch Ophthalmol. 2012; 130(11):1479-81.


In Ontario, Canada, the cost of cataract surgery is covered by universal health care insurance, and a recent government-mandated Wait Time Strategy (WTS) has provided population-based analyses of wait times for cataract surgery. Evidence suggests that the surgery rates achieved by the WTS are appropriate to meet population needs. We used this information to forecast cataract surgery rates needed in Ontario during the next 25 years. Because current and forecasted demographic characteristics in the United States and Ontario are very similar—with the number of seniors projected to more than double between 2010 and 2036—our predictions for Ontario can be used as a template to predict the need for cataract surgery in the United States as well.

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Keywords: Ophthalmologic disorders Health care utilization Surgery

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