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A prognostic survival model incorporating patient-reported outcomes for transplant-ineligible patients with multiple myeloma


Developing prognostic tools specifically for patients themselves represents an important step in empowering patients to engage in shared decision-making. Incorporating patient-reported outcomes may improve the accuracy of these prognostic tools. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of transplant-ineligible (TIE) patients with multiple myeloma (MM) diagnosed between January 2007 and December 2018. A multivariable Cox regression model was developed to predict the risk of death within 1-year period from the index date. We identified 2356 patients with TIE MM. The following factors were associated with an increased risk of death within 1 year: age > 80 (HR 1.11), history of heart failure (HR 1.52), “CRAB” at diagnosis (HR 1.61), distance to cancer center (HR 1.25), prior radiation (HR 1.48), no proteosome inhibitor/immunomodulatory therapy usage (HR 1.36), recent emergency department (HR 1.55) or hospitalization (HR 2.13), poor performance status (ECOG 3-4 HR 1.76), and increasing number of severe symptoms (HR 1.56). Model discrimination was high with C-statistic of 0.74, and calibration was very good. To our knowledge, this represents one of the first prognostic models developed in MM incorporating patient-reported outcomes. This survival prognostic tool may improve communication regarding prognosis and shared decision-making among older adults with MM and their health care providers.



Mian H, Seow H, Balitsky AK, Cheung MC, Gayowsky A, Tay J, Wildes TM, McCurdy A, Visram A, Sandhu I, Sutradhar R. Oncologist. 2024; Apr 18 [Epub ahead of print].

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