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New online calculator predicts risk of developing kidney disease


Researchers at The Ottawa Hospital have developed and validated an online calculator that can estimate a person’s risk of developing chronic kidney disease. The method used to develop the tool was published in the Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology.

Early stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) has no symptoms, and its onset can often be reduced with lifestyle modifications such as diet, exercise, and quitting smoking. This calculator may improve awareness of chronic kidney disease and help people reduce their risk.

The team led by Drs. Manish Sood and Ariana Noel used ICES data from 22,200 adults in Ontario with normal kidney function (9% of whom developed chronic kidney disease), as well as data from 15,500 adults in the UK Biobank to develop and validate the tool.

Their final model, which includes lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity) and other illnesses (diabetes, hypertension, cancer) can accurately predict who will develop chronic kidney disease.

“Our goal is to improve awareness of chronic kidney disease and to empower and personalize care for patients,” said Dr. Manish Sood, a physician-scientist and Jindal Research Chair for the Prevention of Kidney Disease at The Ottawa Hospital, and associate professor at the University of Ottawa. “Our calculator is a simple tool that can be completed by anyone without prior medical knowledge or blood work.”

Full reference: A health survey-based prediction equation for incident CKD. Manish Sood, Ariana Noel, Anan Badder Eddeen, Douglas G. Manuel, Emily Rhodes, Navdeep Tangri, Gregory L. Hundemer, Peter Tanuseputro, Gregory A. Knoll, Ranjeeta Mallick. Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. January 18, 2023. doi: 10.2215/CJN.05650522

Funding: The study was funded by Kidney Foundation of Canada and The Ontario Regional Center of the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute, and supported by ICES.

About The Ottawa Hospital
The Ottawa Hospital is one of Canada’s top learning and research hospitals, where excellent care is inspired by research and driven by compassion. As the third-largest employer in Ottawa, our support staff, researchers, nurses, physicians, and volunteers never stop seeking solutions to the most complex health-care challenges. Our multi-campus hospital, affiliated with the University of Ottawa, attracts some of the most influential scientific minds from around the world. Backed by generous support from the community, we are committed to providing the world-class, compassionate care we would want for our loved ones. www.ohri.ca

About the University of Ottawa

The University of Ottawa is home to over 50,000 students, faculty and staff, who live, work and study in both French and English. Our campus is a crossroads of cultures and ideas, where bold minds come together to inspire game-changing ideas. We are one of Canada’s top 10 research universities—our professors and researchers explore new approaches to today’s challenges. One of a handful of Canadian universities ranked among the top 200 in the world, we attract exceptional thinkers and welcome diverse perspectives from across the globe. www.uottawa.ca

About ICES

ICES is an independent, non-profit research institute that uses population-based health information to produce knowledge on a broad range of healthcare issues. Our unbiased evidence provides measures of health system performance, a clearer understanding of the shifting healthcare needs of Ontarians, and a stimulus for discussion of practical solutions to optimize scarce resources. ICES knowledge is highly regarded in Canada and abroad, and is widely used by government, hospitals, planners, and practitioners to make decisions about care delivery and to develop policy. In October 2018, the institute formerly known as the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences formally adopted the initialism ICES as its official name. For the latest ICES news, follow us on Twitter: @ICESOntario


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