{"id":24006,"date":"2026-05-09T16:13:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T20:13:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ices.on.ca\/?post_type=journal_article&#038;p=24006"},"modified":"2026-05-14T16:20:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T20:20:25","slug":"development-and-validation-of-a-canadian-prediction-equation-for-incident-ckd-using-population-based-administrative-data","status":"publish","type":"journal_article","link":"https:\/\/www.ices.on.ca\/fr\/publications\/journal-articles\/development-and-validation-of-a-canadian-prediction-equation-for-incident-ckd-using-population-based-administrative-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Development and validation of a Canadian prediction equation for incident CKD using population-based, administrative data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Background<\/strong> \u2014 Identifying individuals at risk for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD; estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] &lt;60 mL\/min\/1.73 m2) could aid in prevention and disease surveillance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Objective<\/strong> \u2014 Develop and validate prediction equations to identify individuals at risk of incident CKD using routinely collected administrative data with and without urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Design<\/strong> \u2014 This is a retrospective cohort study using administrative data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Setting<\/strong> \u2014\u00a0This study was conducted in Manitoba and Ontario, Canada.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Patients<\/strong> \u2014\u00a0This study included 413\u2009948 adults (18 or older) with an eGFR &gt; 70 mL\/min\/1.73 m2 from Manitoba (derivation cohort; 2006-2016) with external validation in 7\u2009747\u2009513 adults from Ontario, Canada.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Measurements<\/strong> \u2014 Routinely available variables (demographics, comorbidities, laboratory values) in administrative data sets were used to predict the outcome of incident CKD (stage G3+) defined by a single outpatient eGFR measure &lt;60 mL\/min\/1.73 m2 during and up to 10 years of follow-up. In an additional analysis, we defined incident CKD using repeat eGFR measures.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Methods<\/strong> \u2014 Time-to-event models, accounting for the competing risk of death, were used to predict new-onset CKD from one to nine years with a data-driven model reduction. Prediction equations stratifying individuals with and without ACR measurements were derived internally and externally validated.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Results<\/strong> \u2014 Among individuals from Manitoba [53% women, mean (SD) age 51 (17), mean (SD) baseline eGFR 95 (14) mL\/min\/1.73 m2, median (interquartile range) ACR 0.7 mg\/mmol (1-3)], incident CKD occurred in 11.4% during a median follow-up time of 4.5 (Q1 = 2.3, Q3 = 7.6) years of follow-up. The final model included six variables (age, sex, baseline eGFR, hemoglobin, hypertension, and diabetes) and yielded a five-year area under the curve of 86.0 (no ACR) and 80.2 (with ACR). Model performance was excellent in external validation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Limitations<\/strong> \u2014 Only individuals with measures of all model predictors (complete case analysis) were included.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong> \u2014 Equations using routinely collected population-level, administrative data variables can accurately predict the onset of CKD with or without ACR.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Background \u2014 Identifying individuals at risk for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD; estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] &lt;60 mL\/min\/1.73 m2) could aid in prevention and disease surveillance. Objective \u2014 Develop and validate prediction equations to identify individuals at risk of incident CKD using routinely collected administrative data with and without urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). Design [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","migration-helper-automated":[],"migration-manual":[],"topic":[59,49],"migration-helper-qa-sample-set":[],"class_list":["post-24006","journal_article","type-journal_article","status-publish","hentry","topic-data-science","topic-kidney-disease"],"acf":{"citation":"Sood MM, Dixon SN, Bota SE, Ferguson TW, Hundemer GL, Akbari A, Manuel DG, Knoll G, Tangri N. <em>Can J <span class=\"highlight\">Kidney<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"highlight\">Health<\/span> Dis<\/em>. 2026; 13. Epub 2026 May 9.","source_url":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/20543581261439677","ices_scientist":[1208,1264,1323],"site":[6739],"research_program":[6743],"news_release":"","journal_article":"","atlas":"","research_report":"","infographic":"","video":"","downloads":null,"links":null,"sitecore_item_id":"","sitecore_item_name":"","sitecore_field_values":"","previous_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ICES | Development and validation of a Canadian prediction equation for incident CKD using population-based, administrative data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Background \u2014 Identifying individuals at risk for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD; estimated glomerular filtration rate &lt;60 mL\/min\/1.73 m2) could\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ices.on.ca\/fr\/publications\/journal-articles\/development-and-validation-of-a-canadian-prediction-equation-for-incident-ckd-using-population-based-administrative-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ICES | Development and validation of a Canadian prediction equation for incident CKD using population-based, administrative data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Background \u2014 Identifying individuals at risk for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD; 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