{"id":21688,"date":"2025-03-19T10:56:59","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T14:56:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ices.on.ca\/?post_type=journal_article&#038;p=21688"},"modified":"2025-04-08T11:07:37","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T15:07:37","slug":"predicting-future-acute-care-visit-risk-in-kids-with-asthma-parka","status":"publish","type":"journal_article","link":"https:\/\/www.ices.on.ca\/fr\/publications\/journal-articles\/predicting-future-acute-care-visit-risk-in-kids-with-asthma-parka\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting future acute care visit risk in kids with asthma (PARKA): a nested cohort study"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Objectives<\/strong> \u2014 We aimed to develop a clinical risk score to predict future asthma acute care visits [emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations] within 1 year following a discharge from 1 of 2 tertiary care pediatric EDs in Ontario, Canada.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Methods<\/strong> \u2014 We assembled a nested Ontario cohort from the multicenter prospective DOORWAY cohort study and included children 1 to 17 years of age, with an ED visit for a moderate\/severe asthma exacerbation. We linked this with provincial health administrative data. We used multivariable regression to derive and internally validate a practical clinical risk score to predict future asthma acute care visits.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Results<\/strong> \u2014 A total of 257 children [32% female, median age 3.0 years (IQR 1 to 7 y)] were included, and 58 experienced an asthma visit within the following year. These were best predicted by 4 factors: food allergy (OR 4.2, 95% CI: 1.2-14.9), family history of asthma (OR 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.9), prior acute asthma medical visits (OR 2.8, 95% CI: 0.9-8.6), and prior emergency room visits for any respiratory diagnosis (OR 3.0, 95% CI: 1.4-6.4). A score of 0, 1, or 2 points was applied to each factor for up to a maximum of 6 points; the PARKA score has very good overall performance with a scaled Brier score of 0.11 on internal validation and good discrimination with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64-0.78).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusions<\/strong> \u2014 The PARKA score predicts the risk of a future asthma acute care visit in a cohort of Ontario children with a moderate\/severe asthma ED visit. Following external validation, this tool may aid ED clinicians in accurately targeting resource-intensive preventative interventions for at-risk children.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Objectives \u2014 We aimed to develop a clinical risk score to predict future asthma acute care visits [emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations] within 1 year following a discharge from 1 of 2 tertiary care pediatric EDs in Ontario, Canada. Methods \u2014 We assembled a nested Ontario cohort from the multicenter prospective DOORWAY cohort study [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","migration-helper-automated":[],"migration-manual":[],"topic":[16,52,35],"migration-helper-qa-sample-set":[],"class_list":["post-21688","journal_article","type-journal_article","status-publish","hentry","topic-children-and-young-people","topic-lung-health","topic-public-health"],"acf":{"citation":"Radhakrishnan D, Li P, Tuna M, Thipse M, Barrowman N, Bijelic V, Poonai N, Chalut D, Zemek R, Benchimol EI, Ducharme FM. <em>Pediatr Emerg Care<\/em>. 2025; Mar 19 [Epub ahead of print].","source_url":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/pec.0000000000003336","ices_scientist":[1331,1174],"site":[6734],"research_program":[6746],"news_release":"","journal_article":"","atlas":"","research_report":"","infographic":"","video":"","downloads":null,"links":null,"sitecore_item_id":"","sitecore_item_name":"","sitecore_field_values":"","previous_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ICES | Predicting future acute care visit risk in kids with asthma (PARKA): a nested cohort study<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Objectives \u2014 We aimed to develop a clinical risk score to predict future asthma acute care visits within 1 year following a discharge from 1 of 2 tertiary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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