Derivation and validation of predictive indices for cardiac readmission after coronary and valvular surgery – a multicenter study

Objective — To derive and validate models to predict the risk of a cardiac readmission within one year after specific cardiac surgeries using information that is commonly available from hospital electronic medical records.

Methods — In this retrospective cohort study, we derived and externally validated clinical models to predict the likelihood of cardiac readmissions within one-year of isolated CABG, AVR, and combined CABG+AVR in Ontario, Canada, using multiple clinical registries and routinely collected administrative databases. For all adult patients who underwent these procedures, multiple Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard models were derived within a competing-risk framework using the cohort from April 2015 to March 2018 and validated in an independent cohort (April 2018 to March 2020).

Results — For the model that predicted post-CABG cardiac readmission, the c-statistic was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.70 in the validation cohort at one-year. For the model that predicted post-AVR cardiac readmission, the c-statistic was 0.74 in the derivation and 0.73 in the validation cohort at one-year. For the model that predicted cardiac readmission following CABG+AVR, the c-statistic was 0.70 in the derivation and 0.66 in the validation cohort at one-year.

Conclusions — Prediction of one-year cardiac readmission for isolated CABG, AVR, and combined CABG+AVR can be achieved parsimoniously using multidimensional data sources. Model discrimination was better than existing models derived from single and multicenter registries.